Pacy
Prediction accuracy record
Every pre-match prediction Pacy has published, graded against the final score: hit rates by sport, and whether the confidence is honest.
Every pre-match prediction Pacy publishes is kept in a permanent record and graded against the final result. This page shows all of them: 3,543 graded so far, and the outcome Pacy rated most likely happened 1,685 times (47.6%).
By sport
A pick counts as right when the outcome Pacy rated most likely happened. The last column is how often a pick would be right by chance: one in two where there are two outcomes, one in three in football, where the draw is a third. Sports with fewer than 25 graded games are left out until they have enough.
| Sport | Graded | Right | Hit rate | By chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Football (soccer) | 2,689 | 1,205 | 44.8% | 33.3% |
| Baseball | 346 | 193 | 55.8% | 50.0% |
| Basketball | 111 | 64 | 57.7% | 50.0% |
| Ice hockey | 212 | 129 | 60.9% | 50.0% |
| American football | 46 | 31 | 67.4% | 50.0% |
| Tennis | 139 | 63 | 45.3% | 50.0% |
Is the confidence honest?
A forecast is only useful if its percentages mean what they say: of all the games Pacy called at 60 to 70%, the favourite should win about two thirds. Each row groups the predictions by how confident Pacy was and shows how often the favourite actually won.
| Pacy gave the favourite | Games | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|
| 0–40% | 502 | 37.6% |
| 40–50% | 1,603 | 43.2% |
| 50–60% | 903 | 55.1% |
| 60–70% | 307 | 56.7% |
| 70–80% | 155 | 62.6% |
| 80–90% | 53 | 43.4% |
| 90–100% | 20 | 60.0% |
How the record is kept
A prediction enters the record when it is published before the game, and is graded only once the final score is in. Nothing is removed afterwards, and a game Pacy never predicted is not counted as a miss. The figures update hourly. How the predictions are built is explained on the data methodology page.