Mourinho returns to Roma as Real Madrid visit the Olimpico
Jose Mourinho brings Real Madrid to his former club on 14 October, and Pacy's model makes Gian Piero Gasperini's Roma 43.8% to win against 33.5% for the visitors.
Jose Mourinho, now Real Madrid's head coach and, as beIN Sports notes, Roma's former coach, brings his side to the Stadio Olimpico on 14 October 2026 for a Champions League league-phase meeting, per Sports Mole. Pacy's model makes Roma 43.8% to win, Real Madrid 33.5% and a draw 22.7%.
The state of play
Both clubs have played one league-phase game, and the table already separates them. Real Madrid beat Inter 2-1 at home on 8 September, according to beIN Sports, with Kylian Mbappe scoring in the 14th minute, Federico Valverde adding a second and Carlos Augusto pulling one back in the 77th. That leaves Madrid 14th on 3 points with a goal difference of +1 in Pacy's data. Roma are 17th on 1 point after a 1-1 draw at Fenerbahce on 10 September.
Recent form tells a different story from the table. Roma are unbeaten in their last five games, with two wins and three draws, seven goals scored and four conceded, and their latest outing was a 0-0 draw at Como on 11 October. Real Madrid's last three read win, defeat, win: 3-2 at Elche on 15 September, 1-2 at Atletico Madrid on 20 September and 1-0 at home to Villarreal on 10 October.
| Pacy's data | AS Roma | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| League-phase position | 17th | 14th |
| Points | 1 | 3 |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| Goals scored / conceded | 1 / 1 | 2 / 1 |
| Recent form, W-D-L | 2-3-0 (last five) | 2-0-1 (last three) |
| Win probability (Pacy's model) | 43.8% | 33.5% |
| Expected goals (Pacy's model) | 1.51 | 1.33 |
Mourinho's return and the Madrid list
Mourinho called the 2-1 win over Inter a crazy match and said Inter were strong and hard to close down in midfield, according to beIN Sports. Gasperini has spoken about his counterpart too. Per beIN Sports, he said of Mourinho:
'Jose is, rightly, a special one, and he manages to find success on and off the pitch.'
In the same report, Gasperini said Roma had only a small number of players available and could not play any friendlies during the international break.
On the Real Madrid side, the injury list from Sports Mole dates from before the 10 October Villarreal game, so it is a snapshot rather than current team news. It had Rodrygo (knee) out until the start of 2027, Eder Militao (hamstring) out with a return expected before the end of October, Ferland Mendy (thigh) possibly out until the final stages of 2026, and Raul Asencio (stress fracture) out for about three months after an operation. Valverde (ankle) was a major doubt for Villarreal, while Mbappe and Ibrahima Konate (both knee) were minor doubts. Sports Mole also reports that Dean Huijsen, suspended after a red card in the Madrid derby, is expected to be available again for the Roma game.
What Pacy's model says
Pacy's model makes this a close contest with a lean towards Roma. Its predicted score is 1-1, and the lean follows the expected-goals figures of 1.51 for Roma and 1.33 for Real Madrid. The model's confidence is 43.9%, labelled Low, and it rests on a sample of 14 games with no head-to-head meetings in Pacy's data. The draw, at 22.7%, is the least likely of the three results, yet the model's predicted score is 1-1.
Players to watch
Pacy's data lists these league-phase performers for the two sides:
- AS Roma: Bryan Cristante, 1 goal and 91 accurate passes; Donyell Malen, 1 assist and 4 total shots; Mile Svilar, 4 saves.
- Real Madrid: Valverde, 1 goal; Brahim Diaz, 1 assist; Mbappe, 4 total shots.
The match tests whether Roma's unbeaten run, built on three draws in five, can become a win against a side that has won two of its last three.