Two debuts, narrow edge: Klopp and Xavi meet in Amsterdam

Jürgen Klopp and Xavi Hernández take charge of their first games for Germany and the Netherlands when the two meet at the Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam on 24 September, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in the UEFA Nations League. Pacy's model gives the Netherlands a 43.9% chance of winning, ahead of Germany at 29.8%, even though Germany were unbeaten in the three meetings in 2024. Its predicted score is 1-1.

Klopp's new-look Germany

Klopp replaced Julian Nagelsmann as Germany manager, per ESPN. For his first international window he named 44 players across two squads, per ESPN: one for the Netherlands and Greece games, featuring Kai Havertz, Jamal Musiala and Nico Schlotterbeck, and another featuring Florian Wirtz, Nick Woltemade and Karim Adeyemi. His explanation was simple: "I want to get to know as many players as possible. There is no A or B team," he said, per ESPN.

The pool leans young. It includes 16 players who are uncapped at senior level, among them Bayern Munich's Lennart Karl (18) and RB Leipzig's Assan Ouédraogo (20), and only five players aged 30 or older, per ESPN. Marc-André ter Stegen is now first-choice goalkeeper following Manuel Neuer's retirement, per ESPN, and captain Joshua Kimmich will play in midfield rather than at right-back, where Nagelsmann used him, Sky Sports reports.

Klopp made a statement off the pitch too. At the squad announcement he wore a cap reading "one of 83 million" in German colours, a message against far-right politics, Sky Sports reports. For some players the chance to play for him was decisive. "I am very, very proud. There were also talks with Morocco, but they weren't as intense as with Jürgen," forward Younes Ebnoutalib said, per ESPN.

Xavi's first Netherlands squad

Xavi succeeded Ronald Koeman as Netherlands manager, per ESPN, and his first 26-man squad left out Memphis Depay, the Netherlands' all-time top scorer with 55 goals in 112 appearances, per ESPN. In came PSV winger Ruben van Bommel (22) and Feyenoord midfielder Gjivai Zechiël (22), who has five goals in six Eredivisie games this season, per ESPN.

One senior figure is staying. Virgil van Dijk called continuing with the national team a "massive decision" and said his talks with Xavi were decisive, per ESPN.

The recent meetings

The sides met three times in 2024, and Germany did not lose any of them: a 2-1 win in Germany in March, a 2-2 draw in Amsterdam in September and a 1-0 win in Germany in October. Germany's two wins both came at home; the only meeting in Amsterdam was drawn.

On form, the Netherlands have three wins, one draw and one loss from their last five games, and Germany three wins and two losses.

What Pacy's model says

Pacy's model makes the Netherlands favourites at 43.9%, with Germany at 29.8% and a draw at 26.3%, and labels its confidence as low. Its expected goals are 1.73 for the Netherlands and 1.28 for Germany, so it expects the hosts to create more. Its predicted score is 1-1, the same kind of result as the last meeting in Amsterdam, a 2-2 draw in September 2024.

There is an apparent tension in those numbers: the predicted score is a draw, yet a draw is the least likely of the three outcomes. That is normal. A draw needs one exact balance of goals, while a home win covers every winning score, from 1-0 to 4-2 and beyond. The model's view is that the Netherlands are more likely to win than not to, but only just: a draw or a German win together come to 56.1%.

Two squads, one night

This is a game of firsts. Klopp's broad, rotating pool, with 16 uncapped players, meets a Netherlands squad that Xavi has already reshaped by leaving out his country's record scorer. Neither manager has a competitive result to lean on, so the game will be the first real evidence of what each is building.

For Germany, the question is how quickly a young, rotated group settles. For the Netherlands, it is whether home advantage and the model's expected-goals edge outweigh Germany's 2024 record in the fixture. With the model predicting 1-1, the first goal may shape the night.

Sources

• ESPN
• ESPN
• ESPN
• ESPN
• ESPN
• ESPN
• ESPN
• Sky Sports