Thin margins in Belgrade: Serbia and Greece open their Nations League group
Pacy's model gives Serbia a 40% chance of beating Greece at home, with a draw at 31.2%, as two sides without momentum open a group that also contains Germany and the Netherlands.
Serbia host Greece at the Rajko Mitić Stadium in Belgrade on 24 September, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in their UEFA Nations League opener. Pacy's model makes Serbia slight favourites at 40% to win, but a draw is close behind at 31.2%, and neither side arrives in convincing form.
A group that matters
Serbia and Greece are two of the four sides in League A, Group A2, alongside Germany and the Netherlands, per ESPN. Both of those sides begin under new managers, Jürgen Klopp with Germany and Xavi Hernández with the Netherlands, per ESPN. With those two meeting in Amsterdam on the same night, this is the game in the group where both teams will most want to start with points.
Form tells a muddled story
Serbia have two wins and three losses from their last five games. Their recent results, per ESPN, include heavy friendly defeats to Spain (0-3) and Mexico (1-5), and wins over Saudi Arabia (2-1) and Latvia (1-0). Greece have won none of their last five but drawn three. Per ESPN, their recent friendlies include draws with Sweden (2-2) and Hungary (0-0) and 1-0 defeats to Italy and Paraguay.
| Team | Recent results (per ESPN) | Last five (Pacy) |
|---|---|---|
| Serbia | L 0-3 Spain, L 1-5 Mexico, W 2-1 Saudi Arabia, W 1-0 Latvia | W2 D0 L3 |
| Greece | D 2-2 Sweden, D 0-0 Hungary, L 0-1 Italy, L 0-1 Paraguay | W0 D3 L2 |
The shapes of those records are different. Serbia's results swing: they have both scored and conceded heavily, with eight goals against in the two defeats listed above. Greece's are tight: in the four results listed, they conceded four goals, and two of those came in the draw with Sweden. One side's matches tend to open up; the other's tend to stay close.
What Pacy's model makes of it
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Serbia win | 40.0% |
| Draw | 31.2% |
| Greece win | 28.8% |
Pacy's model predicts a 1-0 Serbia win and labels its confidence as low. Expected goals favour the hosts, 1.15 to 0.85, but neither figure suggests a high-scoring night. Just 8.8 percentage points separate a Serbia win from a draw, and a draw is the model's second-likeliest outcome. That fits Greece's record: three of their last five games ended level. A Greece win, at 28.8%, is less likely than either alternative but far from remote.
Put another way, the model gives Serbia a better-than-even chance of avoiding defeat at home (71.2% for a win or a draw), and Greece a 60% chance of leaving Belgrade with at least a point.
What to watch
Both squads carry several goalkeeping options. Serbia's include Vanja Milinković-Savić (29), Filip Stanković (24) and Đorđe Petrović (26), per ESPN. Greece's include Odysseas Vlachodimos (32), Christos Mandas (25) and Konstantinos Tzolakis (23), per ESPN.
If the model's low-scoring expectation is right, the first goal could carry unusual weight. Serbia's recent results have swung both ways; Greece's show a side that is hard to beat but has struggled to win. Whichever pattern holds on the night is likely to decide the result.
Both sides play again on 27 September, per ESPN: Serbia face the Netherlands and Greece travel to Germany. A win for Serbia here would put them on three points before the Netherlands game. A draw would leave both sides with a point and a harder second fixture. And a Greece win, less likely by the numbers but entirely possible, would leave Serbia chasing from the first round.